martes, 28 de marzo de 2017
Economic Forecasting Center (CEPREDE in spanish language) begins in 1981 as a result of work of a group of professors from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the unconditional support of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Madrid and the University-Enterprise Foundation. Five years later in 1986, establishing the Economic Forecasting Center Association (CEPREDE in spanish).
The Association counts among its partners, private corporations, business associations and governments of the autonomous administrations.
CEPREDE is now a permanent Center for Economic Research, a reality created and shared by everyone, Sponsors, Founders, Partners and a group of university professors and researchers.
A reality which numerically is summarized in decades of history, with hundreds of prediction, continuous analysis of approximately 1,000 macroeconomic variables and 200 short-term indicators, permanent consultation with a hundred experts panel, maintenance and updating of methodological reports, Construction sectoral models and participation through the Institute of Economic Forecasting "Klein LR" national projects Hispalink (Integrated Regional) and international LINK (United Nations), and EUREN and AIECE.
SEO is an annual summary report of the forecast prepared by CEPREDE team that integrated the main figures of Spanish economy (like a profile) and the projections up to the Wharton-UAM econometric model (several tables). This report is used to EUREN network and AIECE meetings. All the forecasts are available in Spanish for suscribers of CEPREDE's full services. (you can see "Tienda Virtual" for suscription to Sectoral Analysis and more reports).
CEPREDE produces a range of reports for years are consulted by the partner organizations and sought after by major companies with an emphasis on domestic and European markets. For example, on a monthly basis are held: Monthly Report, Review of Expectations, High Frequency Model of Economic Activity, ... that are distributed electronically via a Weekly Press. Twice a year, Economic and Business Outlook, Predictions macroeconomic medium and long term, others on an annual basis, Panorama Sectorial, Regional Overview and regional Difussion of the New Economy.
Five reports are available as a summary of five other publications which can provide a keying material and provide an overview: Analysis Sectoral, Regional Focus, Macroeconomic Forecast, Business and Economic Perspectives and, Diffusion of technology in Home-Business-Autonomous Governments.
High Frecuency Model for Euro Zone, The High Frequency Model analyzes the main trends shared by a group of selected business indicators which recent evolution is displayed in following tables and graphs. Those common trends are extracted through Principal component analysis and the extracted factors are forecasted with automatic ARIMA models. After that, those forecasts are used both, to get specific forecasts on individual indicators (Dynamic Factor analysis), and to get a monthly GDP growth rate through temporal desegregation techniques (Chow-Lin). So, this result (HFMEU) indicates what is the monthly growth (%) and its short-term horizon.